As Iran approaches its presidential election, the political landscape is witnessing a significant shift. Mr. Pezeshkian, a reformist candidate, has garnered public support from two former reformist presidents, Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami, as well as the former foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif. His campaign has been marked by increasing enthusiasm and large crowds at his rallies, signaling a growing momentum in the days leading up to the election.
In a strategic move, two candidates withdrew from the race on Thursday, likely orchestrated by the clerical establishment to consolidate the conservative vote. This development comes as Mr. Pezeshkian leads in the polls against Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the current speaker of parliament and a former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, and Saeed Jalili, a hardline former nuclear negotiator.
Conservative Stance and Opposition
Conservative candidates in Iran maintain a firm stance against engaging with the West, asserting that the nation can thrive despite economic sanctions. This election marks a crucial juncture following the death of hardliner Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month, which also claimed the lives of seven others. Raisi’s passing has left a significant void in the hardliner camp, making the outcome of this election even more pivotal.
Voter Turnout: A Test of Legitimacy
The legitimacy of the Islamic Republic is under scrutiny, with voter turnout figures being a critical measure. Previous elections, including the parliamentary elections in March and the last presidential election in 2021, saw record low turnouts. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called for maximum participation, urging the public to vote to uphold the nation’s democratic process. However, a deep-seated disillusionment among young and middle-class Iranians casts doubt on the likelihood of a significant turnout.
“There are lots of billboards in the streets asking people to ‘vote for a better tomorrow,’ but we just don’t buy it any more,” a 20-year-old student in Tehran remarked. The 2022 death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody and the subsequent nationwide protests have exacerbated the rift between Iran’s leaders and its citizens, particularly among Generation Z.
The Reformist Dilemma
The Iranian public’s hopes for reform have been dashed repeatedly, leading to widespread skepticism. Former President Hassan Rouhani’s disqualification from standing in recent elections for the Assembly of Experts—a body responsible for appointing the Supreme Leader—exemplifies the marginalization of reformist voices. Many Iranians have lost faith in the electoral process as a means of enacting meaningful change.
“I won’t vote this year,” said a 70-year-old woman in Tehran who previously supported reformist candidates. “The economy is in such a dire state and a generation of young people now just want to leave Iran.” Azad, a women’s rights activist who was imprisoned during the protests, described the election as an “electoral circus,” highlighting the lack of genuine democratic choice.
A Glimmer of Hope
Despite the pervasive cynicism, some Iranians see a faint hope for change in Mr. Pezeshkian’s candidacy. Maryam, a 54-year-old from Tehran, expressed her support for Pezeshkian, believing that reform from within is the only viable path to progress. She appreciates his lack of ties to the security forces and the absence of corruption allegations against him, hoping he can improve Iran’s international relations.
However, analysts caution against expecting significant change even if Pezeshkian wins. “Pezeshkian is a reformist in name only,” says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House. “He supports the Islamic Republic and is deeply loyal to the Supreme Leader. His participation could potentially boost public turnout and increase enthusiasm, but one should not expect much more than a difference in tone should he be elected.”
Conclusion
As Iran stands at a crossroads, the upcoming election is not just a political event but a test of the public’s faith in the possibility of reform within the existing system. With deep divisions between the government and the people, the outcome of this election will have far-reaching implications for the future of the Islamic Republic. The world watches closely, hoping for a peaceful and constructive path forward for the Iranian people.
