Senior officials in Israel’s government have stated they are nearing their military objectives of defeating Hamas and securing the return of hostages taken on October 7. However, the persistence of Hamas as a guerrilla force and its influence in Gaza could impact any final agreement.
After enduring extensive military operations from one of the Middle East’s strongest armies, Hamas has significantly weakened since its cross-border assault on Israel on October 7.
Initially, Hamas propaganda showed well-equipped fighters in full gear. Currently, small insurgent groups in casual clothing are seen conducting hit-and-run attacks in Gaza’s devastated streets.
Sources knowledgeable about Hamas’ tactics, including former militants, Palestinian officials, and Israeli military personnel, described the group’s current situation and strategy.
Both Israeli and Palestinian sources indicate that Hamas’ pre-war communications network has been severely damaged. This has fragmented its command structure, forcing reliance on in-person message delivery to evade Israeli surveillance.
One Palestinian source explained that the loss of personnel and the communications network has collapsed central decision-making. Much of Hamas’ tunnel network beneath Gaza has also been destroyed or compromised.
Hamas’ recent guerrilla tactics aim to ensure its survival, delay Israeli forces, and cause casualties, as per a Palestinian source.
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, addressing troops in Rafah, stated that Israel is close to a military victory over Hamas. Gallant emphasized that defeating Hamas militarily will facilitate negotiations to free hostages.
Hamas took about 250 hostages and killed 1,200 people during the October 7 attack. Currently, Hamas and other militants hold 115 hostages, with Israeli authorities declaring about a third of them dead in absentia.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking to the U.S. Congress, promised the hostages’ release and envisioned a post-war Gaza led by Palestinians who do not seek Israel’s destruction.
Hamas rejected Netanyahu’s claims, accusing him of blocking negotiations to end the war and release the hostages, a process mediated by Egypt and Qatar.
Netanyahu has asserted that victory means eliminating Hamas’ military and governing capabilities to ensure Gaza poses no threat to Israel.
Despite its losses, Hamas maintains that its command structure is still operational, albeit weakened. Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri claimed that Israel exaggerates its achievements.
As of July 16, Israel’s military reported killing or capturing at least 14,000 Hamas fighters out of an estimated 30,000 to 40,000. Israel says it has lost 326 soldiers in Gaza since the ground offensive began.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have stated that they have eliminated half of Hamas’ military leadership and are targeting its top leaders. An airstrike on July 13 targeted Hamas’ military chief Mohammed Deif, with the Gaza health ministry reporting at least 90 Palestinian deaths.
Several senior Hamas commanders, including Ayman Nofal and Ahmed Al-Ghandour, have been confirmed killed. Despite this, Hamas fighters continue to draw Israeli forces into recurring battles in Gaza, preventing a decisive victory.
Experts, like Michael Milshtein from Tel Aviv’s Moshe Dayan Center, argue that Israel needs more troops on the ground to destroy Hamas’ capabilities, highlighting the group’s multifaceted influence.
The IDF began releasing reservists after around four months of mobilization. The three-tier offensive plan includes aerial bombardment, ground operations, and mopping-up activities. Most of Gaza is in the final phase, with Israeli forces focusing on remaining Hamas battalions in Rafah.
Hamas’ rocket arsenal has significantly depleted, with the IDF estimating 13,000 out of 15,000 to 30,000 rockets fired. The group’s military structure has been severely disrupted, no longer operating as an institutionalized army.
However, sources close to Hamas suggest it has been preparing for guerrilla warfare for years. Despite tunnel destruction, new tunnels are reportedly being dug by hand. An Israeli military official confirmed ongoing efforts to dismantle Hamas’ infrastructure.
While Israel has made significant progress, much work remains to achieve its goals of eliminating Hamas’ military capabilities and preventing its resurgence.
