Biden’s Big Weakness vs. Trump: Voters Without College Degrees

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, one of the significant challenges facing President Joe Biden is his support among voters without college degrees. This demographic has shown a consistent preference for former President Donald Trump, posing a substantial hurdle for Biden’s re-election campaign.Educational Divide in Voter SupportEducation has become a critical dividing line in American politics. Voters without a college degree have leaned heavily toward Trump, continuing a trend that began in the 2016 election. According to Pew Research Center, 54% of voters without a college degree say they would vote for Trump if the election were held today, compared to 46% for Biden​ (Pew Research Center)​​ (opb)​. This trend is especially pronounced among white voters without a college degree, 63% of whom support Trump, while only 34% back Biden​ (Pew Research Center)​.Historical Context and ShiftsThe educational divide in American voting patterns is not new. In the 2020 election, Trump won 65% of white voters without a college degree, a group that represented a significant portion of his base. Biden’s support among this demographic was significantly lower at 33%​ (Brookings)​​ (Pew Research Center)​. Despite efforts to bridge this gap, Biden has struggled to make significant inroads with these voters.Factors Influencing the DivideSeveral factors contribute to this educational divide. Trump has successfully tapped into the economic anxieties and cultural grievances of non-college-educated voters. His rhetoric on immigration, trade, and job losses has resonated strongly with this group, particularly among white working-class voters​ (opb)​. Additionally, many of these voters feel disconnected from the Democratic Party, which they perceive as elitist and out of touch with their concerns​ (Pew Research Center)​.On the other hand, Biden has made gains among college-educated voters. His policies on climate change, health care, and social justice issues have found favor with this demographic. In contrast to the 2020 election, where Biden already had significant support among college-educated voters, he has continued to consolidate and expand his base in this group​ (opb)​.Implications for the 2024 ElectionThe continued support for Trump among non-college-educated voters poses a strategic challenge for Biden. To secure re-election, Biden needs to either win over a larger share of these voters or significantly increase turnout among his core supporters, including college-educated and minority voters​ (Pew Research Center)​.Furthermore, the shifting allegiances within key voter groups could be pivotal. For instance, while Biden has made gains with college-educated white voters, there is a notable decline in support among younger voters and some minority groups, particularly Latinos and younger Black voters​ (opb)​. These shifts underscore the importance of targeted campaigning and policy messaging that addresses the specific needs and concerns of these diverse constituencies.